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After the growth rate of imports and exports both returned to positive in June, my country's foreign trade imports and exports continued to stabilize and improve in the second half of the year. On August 7, the General Administration of Customs announced that my country's foreign trade imports and exports in July were 2.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.5%. Among them, foreign trade exports achieved strong double-digit growth, reaching 1.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4%; imports were 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6%. The current situation of my country's foreign trade is still complicated and severe. Where will the orders of foreign trade companies come from in the future? Some experts pointed out that rigid demand foreign trade exports and alternative exports will be the main source of orders. While enterprises are striving to grasp orders and switch to domestic sales, my country will continue to support enterprises in all aspects to expand the market and stabilize the basic market of foreign trade.
Mechanical and electrical products, integrated circuits drive the economy
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, the total value of my country's imports and exports of goods trade was 17.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from the same period last year (the same below), and the rate of decline narrowed 1.5 percentage points from the first half of the year. Among them, foreign trade exports were 9.4 trillion yuan, down 0.9%; imports were 7.76 trillion yuan, down 2.6%.
"From the perspective of specific commodities, the main products driven by foreign trade exports are automatic data processing equipment, masks and other textiles, plastic products and integrated circuits." Shi Xianjin, an assistant researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, accepted Beijing Business Daily Analysis during the reporter's interview.
In the first seven months, my country exported 5.5 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 0.2%, accounting for 58.5% of the total export value. According to Shi Advanced Analysis, the largest export contribution is automatic data processing equipment and its parts. Its year-on-year growth rate rose from 16.1% in June to 35.7% in July, accounting for 8.1% of total exports in July, and the contribution rate of export growth Reached 31.3%.
In addition, textiles such as masks still maintain a certain export pulling effect. In the first seven months, exports of textiles, including masks, were 634.32 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8%.
It is worth mentioning that the contribution rate of integrated circuits to exports in July is also relatively high. According to Shi Advanced, its growth rate rose from 8.4% in June to 15.9% in July, accounting for 4.5% of total exports in July.
And in the "Several Policies to Promote the High-quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry and Software Industry in the New Era" issued by the State Council on August 4, it just proposed to deepen the global cooperation between the integrated circuit industry and the software industry, and promote the integrated circuit industry and software industry. "Going Global", high-quality exports of integrated circuits will be highly anticipated.
Resumption of work and production to ensure supply capacity
It is worth noting that from the customs data, not only the decline in imports and exports in the previous July has narrowed, but exports have achieved double-digit growth in July, and imports have maintained the positive growth momentum since June, even with the same period last year. In comparison, this is also a gratifying result.
The narrowing rate of decline is mainly due to the fact that Chinese companies have resumed work and production since May and June. At a press conference on July 14, Li Kuiwen, a spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs, said, "The situation in the prevention and control of the domestic epidemic is improving. It is the first to promote the resumption of work and production of enterprises, which has formed a strong support for import and export."
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with a reporter from Beijing Business Daily that the national policy guarantees strong support to enterprises when they encounter difficulties, so that more enterprises can survive. The victory in the fight against the epidemic has guaranteed the export capabilities of Chinese companies, and the resumption of work and production has given us enough production capacity to restore foreign trade.
The improvement of my country's domestic supply capacity has played an important role in driving exports. Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, said that the domestic cycle will help further enhance the supply capacity. Measures to improve the quality of supply and improve the efficiency of supply will help boost my country's exports and replace overseas supply.
"Combined with high-frequency data and an industry perspective, China's supply advantage boosts exports and the resumption of overseas production and production will gradually reflect the order restoration. The number of suspensions of Asia-North America and Europe routes in July has decreased by 1/4 compared with June. In early and mid-July, the cargo throughput of China's main hub ports was 12.1% and 7% year-on-year, and the foreign trade cargo throughput was 14.4% and 6.4%." Li Chao said.
In terms of overseas markets, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, my country's imports and exports to ASEAN, the European Union and Japan have also increased. In the first seven months, the total value of my country-ASEAN trade was 2.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.6%, accounting for 14.6% of my country's total foreign trade value. Among them, my country's exports to ASEAN were 1.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%; imports from ASEAN were 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.8%. The total value of trade between my country and the EU was 2.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.1%, accounting for 14% of my country's total foreign trade value. Among them, my country's exports to the EU were 1.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 4%; imports from the EU were 936.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.6%.
This is not unrelated to my country's development of diversified international markets in recent years. Among them, the growth of China's investment in countries along the “Belt and Road” has driven trade. In addition, the Chinese and European negotiating teams also held two rounds of negotiations in June and July. In the thirty-first round of negotiations, the two sides made significant progress on the textual issues of fair competition rules.
Rigid demand supports new orders
Li Kuiwen said before that the uncertainties and unstable factors facing my country's foreign trade development have increased significantly, and the impact of Sino-US economic and trade frictions is superimposed, and the import and export situation in the second half of the year remains complicated and severe. However, my country's foreign trade development is resilient and has ample room for maneuver. With the continuous release of the effects of a series of foreign trade stabilization policies and measures, we are confident to stabilize the basic foreign trade market.
Since the beginning of this year, the General Administration of Customs has successively introduced 10 measures to stabilize foreign trade growth and formulated a package of policy measures such as 50 specific task lists to support enterprises in resuming production and production, and ensuring the smooth operation of the foreign trade industry chain and supply chain. Continue to expand the scope of importing countries and commodities, and expand my country's product exports.
The July import and export data set a good start for the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year. With the continuous development of policies supporting the transfer of exports to domestic sales and the promotion of the sixth batch of pilot free trade zones, can the improvement of imports and exports continue in the future?
Pang Chaoran, an associate researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the Beijing Business Daily that the development of trade in the second half of the year is closely related to the situation of epidemic prevention and control. If the epidemic continues to recur and external market demand declines, it may affect the development of trade in the second half of the year. However, on the positive side, the effects of the policy of supporting the resumption of work and production and stabilizing foreign trade in the early stage have gradually emerged, which is expected to provide a strong guarantee for the sustained and healthy development of foreign trade in the second half of the year.
"July's import and export data is not bad, and the situation in the second half of the year is not very certain. The development of the epidemic is the basis of the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year." Bai Ming also said.
Where do future orders come from? Bai Ming analyzed that many backlogs of orders were delivered in June, and future orders mainly rely on basic exports, that is, rigid demand for imports from China anyway. The other is alternative exports. The industrial chain of other countries is broken, and China needs to make up for it in time. The lack of orders in the future will not be as serious as in March and April. For enterprises, if they can grasp the order, they will grasp it; if they can't grasp it, they will export to domestic sales. Do a good job of transferring to the market, transferring to domestic sales, transferring products, and transferring methods. National policies will also play a driving role.
On July 29, the State Council’s executive meeting conducted a special study to further expand opening up, stabilize foreign trade and stabilize foreign investment. According to reports, in the next step, my country will promptly introduce new policies and measures and go all out to stabilize foreign trade. Including better play the role of export credit insurance to help companies actively prevent order risks. Promote "credit insurance + guarantee" to support foreign trade enterprises' financing, provide foreign trade enterprises with financing credit enhancement support in a variety of ways, and further expand export credit to small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises. Grasp the transfer of export products to domestic sales, and strive to ensure the sustainable development of enterprises.
In addition, all-round support enterprises to grasp orders and expand the market. Expand online channels for foreign trade, support the development of new business formats such as cross-border e-commerce, overseas warehouses, and foreign trade comprehensive service companies, expand market procurement and trade mode trials, and drive exports of small, medium and micro enterprises.